Monday, December 12, 2005

Expectation Levels

I was going to write one of my typical hot stove league posts, but in doing my research, I came across Lynn Henning's piece in today's Detroit News. Maybe it's the weather. Maybe it's the Lions. Maybe I'm just plain nuts, but this story really has my shorts in a knot.

The bottom line in Henning's story is that the Tigers appear ready to stand pat. Expect little changes the rest of the winter. That's fine, but don't expect any changes in the standings, either. You field a fourth place team, that's probably what you are going to get. Henning contends the Tigers streak of below .500 records may end. I wonder how?

The veteran News writer, whose work I genuinely enjoy, offers up the infuriating:
The greater expectation is Detroit will play in a slew of genuinely excellent
baseball games next season. Those tight, well-played games will in many cases
become one-run losses for a Tigers team that still isn't on the same level as
Cleveland, Chicago, or -- depending upon who's pitching -- the Twins.

Mr. Henning, forgive me, but if they lose to their three division rivals, albeit in better form, how do we expect the team's prolonged sub .500 mark to vanish? If the Indians, White Sox and Twins are too much, how about Boston, New York, Los Angeles and Oakland, to say nothing of the Kansas City squad that beats the local guys far too often. Where are these 82 wins going to come from?

Again, forgive me, but I expect more. Yes, I realize where the Tigers are at in terms of talent, revenue and payroll, but I'm just not in the mood today to settle for better baseball. Oh, it's a step in the right direction, but it's still losing. Perhaps, the years of losing have lowered expectations, but I'm not ready to accept that tonight.

Again, maybe I'm just cranky because we are sleepwalking through the end of another wasted Lions' schedule, but the prospect of finishing 82-80 doesn't make me rush to call the Tigers ticket office. It doesn't make me believe that the playoffs are right around the corner. In fact, quite the contrary.

If the current thought process is to stand pat and wait for the kids to arrive, how much longer do we wait for the kids to become savvy enough to compete for the post-season? We all know that once the prospects arrive there is going to be a learning curve. We will then get to wait for our kiddie corps to grow up. Is that 2008? 2009? 2010? Longer?

I want to believe that Justin Verlander is going to be American League Rookie of the Year in 2006. I want to believe that Carlos Guillen's knee is going to hold up and he is going to be productive again. I want to believe that Jeremy Bonderman, Curtis Granderson and Chris Shelton are all going to take big steps up in 2006. I want to believe that Ivan Rodriguez will return to his Hall of Fame form. I want to believe that Placido Polanco is that good. I want to believe that the clubhouse problems will be minimized and Jim Leyland can steal a few wins along the way.

Long before Opening Day, I will probably share some of Mr. Henning's upbeat sentiment. (For the record, I attempt to make each January 1 my cutoff day for negative thought on the Tigers.) However, tonight it's cold, dark and the next big snowfall is about two days away. The last thing I need to hear is that the Tigers are content with their team where it stands--in fourth place. Forgive me, if I get a bit annoyed with the sound of that. It's probably just the weather.

2 comments:

Ian C. said...

I was really surprised by Henning's statements, too. Maybe he thinks a better manager (hopefully) can make a difference in some of those close games, along with a (hopefully) more dependable closer.

But it's difficult to see how this can be anything more than a fourth place team in the AL Central. Unless the Twins decline next season - and Terry Ryan seems to be doing a good job of preventing that from happening - I don't see how the Tigers can finish third.

Last season was different because no one expected the White Sox to contend for the division, let alone win the World Series. Several preseason predictions had them behind the Tigers! And many people wondered if the Indians' young talent would mature.

Now the White Sox might be even better, with the addition of Jim Thome. And we know the Indians are for real. What about the Tigers?

Jake said...

I agree completely. Despite the possibility that Curtis Granderson might be OK down the road, the Tigers totally missed the boat on some very good lead off hitters (Pierre, Damon, Furcal). Also, they should've at least made a play for Matt Morris and Kevin Millwood. For a bit of an explanation on the Tigers current game plan (or lack thereof) check out Bill's latest post on www.detroittigersweblog.com. Illitch says that he wants the Tigers to prove something to him before he puts money into the team. Uhhhhh, HELLO!!!!! He's neglected the team for close to 15 years. Now, he wants the neglecting to payoff before he puts money in? Give me a break!