No Kidding

I read Peter Gammons EPSN.com piece about the "Moneyball" general managers who have turned their eyes and calculators over to defense. Seems after years of studying offensive production, the stat boys are looking for ways to measure defense in baseball. Range factors, zone ratings and some double secret stats that none of the wonder boys are yet willing to share are all the rage.

Using these new concepts in evaluating defense, the stat geeks agreed that Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay are really good defensively. That left me thinking one thing. No kidding. Welcome to the party, fellas.

Forgive me of my sarcasm, but I needed absolutely zero numbers to realize that Cameron and Kotsay were good defensively. I also have a tough time believing Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and the other uber-stat GMs didn't know that long before they glanced at each player's zone ratings. That's where the stat crowd loses me.

While I feel today's statistical numbers are enlightening and interesting, I'm concerned about over-analysis. A variety of managers, scouts, players and fans have all claimed stats are not the whole story, but the number crunchers just hate that notion. Everything in their world needs some type of mathematical validation.

Yeah, I suppose that the stats will reveal a player or two that aren't as bad, or good, as we think, but isn't the majority of this stuff kind of obvious? Does anyone who follows baseball not realize that Doug Mientkiewicz owns one of best gloves in all of the game?

I remember the year after Ryne Sandberg retired, the first time. Chicago could not turn a double play. They did all the time the year prior, with the steady should-be Hall of Famer at second. One year later, they struggled to turn DPs. No Cubs fan needed stats to realize what the difference was.

Oh, and what happened to the theory the stat guys offered about "Forget defense, if the guy can hit. He will drive in more runs than he gives up"? Apparently, Theo Epstein has tossed that one aside after watching his Red Sox give away runs for half a season. (I'll spot you that Nomar Garciaparra's impending free agency was a huge factor in making the deal, but even as a big Nomar fan, I think the Red Sox are more solid defensively with Mientkiewicz, Orlando Cabrera and Dave Roberts playing the field.)

I encourage the stat gurus to continue to turn out as many new numbers as they can. Again, I find it educational. (Beane wasn't the only one who loved Nick Swisher's bat in college.) If you are just trying to back up your theories or are looking for every possible edge, that's fine by me. Let's just try and be respectful of each other's opinion. Because every once in a while, if it looks like a duck...............