The Detroit Tigers find themselves in a curious position. As recently as two years ago, the team seemed to be prepared to hold out for future success. They appeared committed to an in-house building plan. A plan that would require time and patience. However, it now appears the Tigers are on a revised Plan B.
Remember when Alan Trammell was hired as manager? The prevailing thought at the time was "Sure, Alan's a rookie manager. He will make mistakes, but he will grow with the team and both should be ready to win at the same time." Of course, most of us figured the emphasis on winning would be several years off, as the Tigers were going to go with their homegrown talent. Trammell would have plenty of time to figure out the fine points of managing.
However, the Tigers direction changed quickly after the 2003 season. After compiling the worst record in American League history, the Tigers were desperate. Not only were the Tigers in dire need of some positive buzz, to generate interest in a morbid franchise, but the contracts with luxury suite ticket holders expired. The Tigers needed some good public relations to encourage those suite holders to renew. They also needed a reason for the rest of the Motor City to show up at all.
To address this matter, the Tigers went the free agency route. Detroit signed Al Levine, Fernando Vina, Jason Johnson, Rondell White and Ivan Rodriguez last winter. The pursuit of Rodriguez alone generated more interest in the Tigers than they had over the last decade. Once signed, the mere presence of the future Hall of Fame catcher sold tickets and created headlines.
It was just what the doctor ordered. Well, sort of. Pudge and company powered the Tigers to an incredible April. Detroit spent much of the initial month of the season in first place. While that level of play was unsustainable, the Tigers went on to improve by twenty-nine games. What's the downside of that? Expectations.
Now, Tiger fans expect more. There is talk of contending for the Central Division title in 2005. Why not? They just jumped up twenty-nine games. Fans argue that if the Tigers shore up a horrible bullpen, get an outfielder and maybe another starter, who knows?
Management has probably altered their expectations as well. The new look and vastly improved on-field product created a large increase in ticket sales. Hosting the All-Star Game in 2005, the Tigers could once again post a significant gain in attendance (and revenue) with hopes of even a better team next year.
In theory, the Tigers would be looking to their farm system to fill some of these key holes. However, 2004 revealed that very, very few Tiger farmhands look anywhere near ready to contribute in 2005. The kiddie corps most of us envisioned Trammell leading appears years away. Thus, to improve the Tigers must either make trades of visit the free agent market once again.
All indications lead towards opening up Mike Ilitch's checkbook for help this winter. When the Tigers pulled the offer from their number one draft pick, Justin Verlander, they not only dealt a blow to the future, but implied the money not used on the prospect would be spent on a free agent. That doesn't sound like Dombrowski's original plan to me. Suddenly, the Tigers are acting as if the future is now.
Now, I don't believe that this Plan B completely foregoes Dombrowski's emphasis on building from within. No organization with limited resources can afford that and Dombrowski has shown an ability and desire to build farm systems. This revised direction just places more attention on the immediate future of the big league club as help from the minors appears to be quite a ways off.
However, I wonder about the Tigers in the short-term. Can Trammell survive this change in direction? If the Tigers go out and acquire more veterans this winter, there will be even more pressure and scrutiny on Trammell. Depending on what new faces show up in Lakeland in March, Trammell might be expected to duplicate 2004's increase in wins. The next twenty game improvement will be far more difficult.
I also wonder what this team looks like in two to three years? Guys like Bobby Higginson, White, Vina, Levine, Johnson and others will be gone. Rodriguez will be nearing the end of his deal. Will some of the Tigers' young pitchers (Jeremy Bonderman, Wilfredo Ledezma, Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth) be able to carry the club by then? Will the next wave of prospects be ready by 2007? Will any of them turnout to be the impact players the organization appears to lack currently? Will the Tigers be going through a complete transition to youth in '07 or '08 that many of us thought would be going on right now? Or will Ilitch continue to spend in free agency to sustain a level of respectability?
Even with a revised plan in place, the long term future of the ballclub is as cloudy as ever. Dombrowski has played the cards dealt him beautifully to this point, but reviving this franchise will still depend greatly on the ability to develop prospects from within. That part of the plan hasn't changed. It also doesn't look significantly better than it did two years ago.
Update: Verlander suprisingly signed with the Tigers yesterday. Seems his agent may have been the primary roadblock to a deal. Here is the Detroit Free Press account. While it's great to add a power arm to the organization, I doubt we will see Verlander making much of a contribution before mid-2006. That may not be soon enough to help Trammell'c cause.
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